Reading the economic calendar: CPI, NFP and rate decisions
The releases that move currencies most, what the forecast and actual columns mean, and how to prepare before they land.
The releases that matter most
Consumer price index (CPI) reports measure inflation and are closely watched because they influence central bank decisions. The US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report measures employment and is usually published on the first Friday of the month. Central bank rate decisions, with their statements and press conferences, set the interest rate that each currency earns and move currencies sharply.
Reading the columns
Calendars usually show the previous value, the forecast or consensus, and the actual result once published. Markets react mainly to the difference between actual and forecast, not to the headline number alone. A strong number that is in line with expectations can produce little movement, while a small surprise can move a currency quickly.
How to prepare
Mark the high-impact events for the pairs you follow before the week starts. Know the time in UTC, expect spreads to widen and orders to slip around the release, and decide in advance whether you will trade it at all. Many experienced traders simply avoid new positions around the most important releases. PipLadder's News Shield pauses new rungs around high-impact events for the pairs they affect.
Key takeaways
- CPI, NFP and rate decisions usually move currencies the most.
- Markets react to surprises: actual compared with forecast.
- Plan around the release time and expect wider spreads and slippage.